Aluminium ke tšepe e nang le tšebeliso e phahameng ea matla le khabone e phahameng.Tlas'a semelo sa tumellano ea hona joale ea lefats'e ea ho fokotsa carbon, le tlas'a lithibelo tsa maano a malapeng a "double carbon" le "taolo ea matla a mabeli", indasteri ea aluminium ea electrolytic e tla tobana le Phetoho e kholo.Re tla tsoela pele ho cheka ka botebo indastering ea aluminium ea electrolytic, ho tloha leano ho ea ho indasteri, ho tloha ho macro ho ea ho tse nyenyane, ho tloha ho phepelo ho ea ho tlhokahalo, ho hlahloba mefuta e ka 'nang ea e-ba teng khokahanyong e' ngoe le e 'ngoe, le ho hlahloba phello ea bona e ka bang teng ka theko ea aluminium nakong e tlang.
Mocheso o phahameng oa fela, hore na theko ea aluminium e "fokotsa feberu"
Mocheso o batang haholo oa August o ile oa aparela lefatše, ’me likarolo tse ngata tsa Eurasia li ile tsa tobana le boemo ba leholimo bo feteletseng ba mocheso, ’me phepelo ea motlakase ea sebakeng seo e ne e le tlas’a khatello e khōlō.Har'a tsona, theko ea motlakase e eketsehile likarolong tse ngata tsa Europe, e leng se lebisitseng ho fokotseng tlhahiso e 'ngoe indastering ea aluminium ea electrolytic ea sebakeng seo.Ka nako e ts'oanang, sebaka se ka boroa-bophirimela ho naha le sona se ile sa angoa haholo ke mocheso o phahameng, 'me phokotso e kholo ea tlhahiso e etsahetse sebakeng sa Sichuan.Tlas'a tšitiso ea lehlakore la phepelo, theko ea aluminium e ile ea phahama hape ho tloha ho 17,000 yuan/ton bohareng ba Phupu ho ea holimo ho 19,000 yuan/ton mafelong a Phato.Hona joale, boemo ba leholimo bo chesang bo qalile ho fokotseha 'me Fed e lebeletsoe hore e phahamise phaello ea phaello ka potlako.Na theko ea aluminium e tobane le "feberu"?
Re lumela hore maikutlo a nako e khuts'oane a macro a ntse a fokotseha, mme ho phahama ha index ea lidolara tsa Amerika ho hatelletse thepa, e kentseng khatello ho litheko tsa aluminium.Empa nakong e bohareng, bothata ba khaello ea matla Europe bo tla ba teng ka nako e telele, tekanyo ea phokotso ea tlhahiso ea aluminium ea electrolytic e tla atolosoa le ho feta, 'me tšebeliso ea eona e tlase le ea ho qetela e tla itšetleha haholo ka thepa e tsoang kantle ho naha.Ka litheko tse tlase tsa matla China, ho romelloa kantle ha aluminium ho na le monyetla oa theko e tlase, e leng se etsang hore thomello ea kantle ho naha karolong ea boraro le ea bone e ka boloka mokhoa o motle.Nakong e seng ea nako ea tšebeliso ea setso ea malapeng, tšebeliso ea li-terminal e bonts'a ho tiea ho totobetseng, 'me ho bokellana ha polokelo ka har'a likhokahano tse bohareng le tse tlase ho fokotseha.Ka mor'a hore mocheso o phahameng o fokotsehe, mohaho o ka tlaase ho metsi o lebeletsoe hore o qale hape ka potlako, o khanna ho fokotseha ha thepa.Ntlafatso e tsoelang pele ea lintho tsa motheo e etsa hore Shanghai Aluminium e be matla haholoanyane.Haeba maikutlo a macro a ntlafala, a tla ba le matla a matla a ho khutla.Ka mor'a nako ea tlhōrō ea "Golden Nine Silver Ten", ho fokotseha ha tlhokahalo le khatello e hlaheletseng ea phepelo, theko ea aluminium e tla boela e tobane le khatello e kholo ea khalemelo.
Tšehetso ea litšenyehelo e totobetse, khatello ea ho hula e fokola ho feta ka June
Ka Phuptjane, Federal Reserve e phatlalalitse ho phahamisa litefiso tsa tsoala ka lintlha tse 75.Ka mor'a phatlalatso, 'maraka o ile oa qala ho rekisa litebello tsa ho theoha ha moruo, e leng se ileng sa baka ho theoha ho hoholo ha theko ea aluminium ka potoloho e tsoelang pele selemong sena.Theko e theohile ho tloha ho 21,000 yuan/ton bohareng ba Phuptjane ho isa ho li-yuan tse 17,000 bohareng ba Phupu./t haufi.Tšabo ea ho putlama ha tlhokahalo nakong e tlang, ho kopantsoe le matšoenyeho mabapi le ho fokolisa metheo ea lehae, e kentse letsoho ho theoheng ha ho qetela.
Ka mor'a mantsoe a hawkish bekeng e fetileng ke Molula-setulo oa Federal Reserve, 'maraka o ile oa boela oa rekisa litebello tsa phaello ea phaello ea 75,' me litheko tsa aluminium li ile tsa theoha hoo e ka bang li-yuan tse ka bang 1 000 ka matsatsi a mararo, hape li tobana le khatello e kholo ea tokiso.Re lumela hore khatello ea khalemelo ena e tla fokola haholo ho feta ea June: ka lehlakoreng le leng, phaello ea indasteri ea aluminium ea electrolytic ka June e ne e le ka holimo ho 3,000 yuan / ton, ho sa tsotellehe hore na ho ea ka pono ea tlhokahalo ea ho thibela semela sa aluminium. ka boeona, kapa indasteri e ka holimo-limo maemong a tlhokahalo e fokolang.Ho ea ka pono ea phaello e phahameng e sa tsitsang, lik'hamphani tsa aluminium li tobane le kotsi ea ho fokotseha ha phaello.Ha phaello e phahame, ho oa ho hoholo, 'me phaello ea hona joale ea indasteri e theohile hoo e ka bang 400 yuan/ton, kahoo ho na le sebaka se fokolang sa ho tsoela pele ho khutlela morao.Ka lehlakoreng le leng, litšenyehelo tsa hona joale tsa aluminium ea electrolytic ho hlakile hore li tšehetsoa.Ka karolelano litšenyehelo tsa aluminium ea electrolytic bohareng ba June e ne e le hoo e ka bang 18,100 yuan / tonne, 'me litšenyehelo li ne li ntse li le haufi le 17,900 yuan / tonne qetellong ea August, ka phetoho e nyenyane haholo.'Me ka nako e telele, ho na le sebaka se batlang se lekanyelitsoe bakeng sa alumina, li-anode tse phehiloeng pele le litšenyehelo tsa motlakase li theohe, tse bolokang litšenyehelo tsa tlhahiso ea aluminium ea electrolytic sebakeng se phahameng ka nako e telele, ho theha tšehetso bakeng sa theko ea hona joale ea aluminium. .
Litheko tsa matla a mose ho maoatle li holimo, 'me ho fokotseha ha tlhahiso ho tla eketseha ho feta
Litšenyehelo tsa matla a mose ho maoatle li lula li le holimo, 'me ho fokotseha ha tlhahiso ho tla tsoela pele ho eketseha.Ka tshekatsheko ya sebopeho sa matla a Yuropa le Amerika, ho ka bonwa hore eneji e ka ntjhafatswang, kgase ya tlhaho, mashala, eneji ya nyutlelie le mehloli e meng ya eneji e nka karolo e kgolo.Ho fapana le United States, Europe e itšetlehile haholo ka thepa e tsoang linaheng tse ling bakeng sa phepelo ea eona ea khase ea tlhaho le mashala.Ka 2021, tšebeliso ea khase ea tlhaho ea Europe e tla ba li-cubic metres tse ka bang limilione tse likete tse 480, 'me hoo e ka bang 40% ea tšebeliso ea khase ea tlhaho e romelloa ho tsoa Russia.Ka 2022, likhohlano lipakeng tsa Russia le Ukraine li ile tsa baka tšitiso ea phepelo ea khase ea tlhaho naheng ea Russia, e leng se ileng sa etsa hore ho be le keketseho e tsoelang pele ea litheko tsa khase ea tlhaho Europe, 'me Europe e ile ea tlameha ho batla mekhoa e meng ea matla a Russia lefatšeng ka bophara, e ileng ea sutumelletsa ka tsela e sa tobang. nyolla litheko tsa khase ea tlhaho lefatšeng ka bophara.Li angoa ke litheko tse phahameng tsa matla, limela tse peli tsa aluminium tsa Amerika Leboea li fokolitse tlhahiso, ka tekanyo ea lithane tse 304,000 tsa phokotso ea tlhahiso.Monyetla oa ho fokotsa tlhahiso e 'ngoe e ke ke ea hlakoloa nakong e tlang.
Ho feta moo, mocheso o phahameng oa selemo sena le komello le tsona li bakile tšitiso e kholo sebopehong sa matla sa Europe.Boemo ba metsi a linōka tse ngata tsa Europe bo theohile haholo, e leng se ammeng haholo katleho ea ho fehla motlakase ka metsi.Ho feta moo, kgaello ya metsi e boetse e ama bokgoni ba ho phodisa ha dipolante tsa matla a nyutlelie, mme moya o futhumetseng o boetse o fokotsa phehlo ya matla a moya, e leng ho etsang hore ho be thata ho dipolante tsa matla a nyutlelie le di-turbine tsa moya ho sebetsa.Sena se ekelitse lekhalo la phepelo ea motlakase Europe, e leng se lebisitseng ka kotloloho ho koaloa ha liindasteri tse ngata tse hlokang matla.Ha re nahana ka ho fokola ha sebopeho sa hona joale sa matla sa Europe, re lumela hore sekhahla sa phokotso ea tlhahiso ea aluminium ea electrolytic ea Europe e tla atolosoa le ho feta selemong sena.
Ha re hetla morao liphetohong tsa matla a tlhahiso ea Europe, ho tloha ha mathata a lichelete a 2008, phokotso ea tlhahiso e ntseng e eketseha Europe ntle le Russia e fetile lithane tse limilione tse 1,5 (ntle le phokotso ea tlhahiso ea mathata a matla a 2021).Ho na le lintlha tse ngata bakeng sa ho fokotseha ha tlhahiso, empa qetellong ke taba ea litšenyehelo: mohlala, ka mor'a ho qhoma ha mathata a lichelete ka 2008, theko ea aluminium ea electrolytic Europe e ile ea oela ka tlase ho theko ea theko, e ileng ea baka phokotso e kholo ea tlhahiso ea limela tsa aluminium tsa electrolytic tsa Europe;Liphuputso tse khahlanong le lithuso tsa theko ea motlakase li ile tsa etsahala United Kingdom le libakeng tse ling, tse entseng hore ho be le keketseho ea theko ea motlakase le ho fokotseha ha tlhahiso ea limela tsa aluminium tsa lehae.'Muso oa UK o boetse o rera ho qala ka 2013, o hloka hore lijenereithara tsa motlakase li lefelle chelete e eketsehileng bakeng sa tlhahiso ea carbon.Mehato ena e ekelitse litšenyehelo tsa tšebeliso ea motlakase Europe, e leng se bakileng boholo ba electrolyticaluminium bafani ba profil e emisitseng tlhahiso qalong mme ha e sa qala tlhahiso hape.
Ho tloha ha koluoa ea matla e qhoma Europe selemong se fetileng, litšenyehelo tsa motlakase oa lehae li ntse li le holimo.Tlas'a tšusumetso ea ntoa ea Ukraine-Russia le boemo ba leholimo bo feteletseng, theko ea khase ea tlhaho le motlakase Europe e fihlile holimo haholo.Haeba kakaretso ea litšenyehelo tsa motlakase oa lehae e baloa ho li-euro tse 650 MWh ka 'ngoe, hora e 'ngoe le e 'ngoe ea kilowatt ea motlakase e lekana le RMB 4.5/kW·h.Tšebeliso ea matla ka thane e le 'ngoe ea tlhahiso ea aluminium ea electrolytic Europe e ka ba 15,500 kWh.Ho ea ka palo ena, theko ea tlhahiso ka tone ea aluminium e haufi le li-yuan tse 70,000 ka tone.Limela tsa Aluminium ntle le theko ea nako e telele ea motlakase li ke ke tsa khona ho e lefella ho hang, 'me tšoso ea ho fokotsa tlhahiso ea aluminium ea electrolytic e ntse e tsoela pele ho atoloha.Ho tloha ka 2021, matla a tlhahiso ea aluminium ea electrolytic Europe a fokotsehile ka lithane tse limilione tse 1.326.Re hakanya hore ka mor'a ho kena ka hoetla, bothata ba khaello ea matla Europe bo ke ke ba rarolloa ka katleho, 'me ho na le kotsi ea ho fokotseha ho eketsehileng ha tlhahiso ea aluminium ea electrolytic.lithane kapa joalo.Ha ho nahanoa ka ho fokola haholo ha phepelo Europe, ho tla ba thata ho hlaphoheloa nako e telele kamora ho khaola tlhahiso.
Litšobotsi tsa matla li hlahella, 'me ho romelloa kantle ho naha ho na le melemo ea litšenyehelo
Hangata 'maraka o lumela hore litšepe tse se nang ferrous li na le litšobotsi tse matla tsa lichelete ho phaella ho litšobotsi tsa thepa.Re lumela hore aluminium e fapane le litšepe tse ling 'me e na le matla a matla a matla, ao hangata a hlokomolohuoang ke' maraka.Ho nka 13,500 kW h ho hlahisa tone e le 'ngoe ea aluminiamo ea electrolytic, e sebelisang motlakase o phahameng ka ho fetisisa ka tone har'a litšepe tsohle tse se nang ferrous.Ho phaella moo, motlakase oa eona o nka hoo e ka bang 34% -40% ea litšenyehelo tsohle, kahoo e boetse e bitsoa "motlakase o tiileng oa naha".1 kWh ea motlakase e hloka ho sebelisa ligrama tse 400 tsa mashala a tloaelehileng ka karolelano, 'me tlhahiso ea 1 tonne ea electrolytic aluminium e hloka ho sebelisa karolelano ea lithane tse 5-5.5 tsa mashala a futhumetseng.Litsenyehelo tsa mashala ka litšenyehelo tsa motlakase oa malapeng li etsa hoo e ka bang 70-75% ea litšenyehelo tsa tlhahiso ea motlakase.Pele litheko li sa laoloe, litheko tsa bokamoso ba mashala le litheko tsa aluminium tsa Shanghai li bonts'a khokahano e phahameng.
Hajoale, ka lebaka la phepelo e tsitsitseng le taolo ea leano, theko ea mashala a futhumatsang ka har'a naha e na le phapang e kholo ea litheko le theko ea libaka tse sebelisoang mose ho maoatle.Theko ea FOB ea 6,000 kcal NAR mashala a futhumetseng a Newcastle, Australia ke US$438.4/ton, theko ea FOB ea mashala a chesang a Puerto Bolivar, Colombia ke US$360/ton, 'me theko ea mashala a chesang a koung ea Qinhuangdao ke US$190.54/ton. , theko ea FOB ea mashala a futhumetseng boema-kepeng ba Baltic ea Russia (Baltic) ke lidolara tse 110 tsa US / ton, 'me theko ea FOB ea 6000 kcal NAR mashala a futhumetseng a Bochabela bo Hōle (Vostochny) ke 158.5 lidolara tsa US / ton.Libaka tse theko e tlaase ka ntle ho sebaka sena li phahame haholo ho feta tsa lehae.Litheko tsa khase ea tlhaho Europe le United States li phahame ho feta theko ea matla a mashala.Ka hona, aluminium ea electrolytic ea lapeng e na le molemo o matla oa litšenyehelo tsa matla, tse tla tsoela pele ho hlahella maemong a litheko tse phahameng tsa matla tsa lefats'e.
Ka lebaka la phapang e kholo ea litefiso tsa ho romela thepa bakeng sa lihlahisoa tse sa tšoaneng tsa aluminium Chaena, melemo ea litšenyehelo tsa li-ingots tsa aluminium ha e totobetse ka mokhoa oa ho romela thepa, empa e bonahala ts'ebetsong e latelang ea aluminium.Mabapi le lintlha tse itseng, Chaena e ile ea romela lithane tse 652,100 tsa lihlahisoa tsa aluminium le aluminium tse sa etsoang ka July 2022, keketseho ea selemo le selemo ea 39.1%;koketso ya thomelontle ho tloha ka Pherekgong ho isa Phupu e ne e le ditone tse dimilione tse 4.1606, e leng keketseho ya selemo le selemo ya 34.9%.Ha ho na le liphetoho tse kholo tlhokahalong ea mose ho maoatle, ho lebeletsoe hore keketseho ea thomello e tla lula e le holimo.
Tšebeliso e matla hanyenyane, khauta, silevera e robong le leshome e ka lebelloa
Ho tloha ka Phupu ho isa ho Phato selemong sena, tšebeliso ea khale ea nako ea selemo e ile ea kopana le maemo a leholimo a feteletseng.Sichuan, Chongqing, Anhui, Jiangsu le libaka tse ling li bile le lithibelo tsa matla le tlhahiso, tse bakileng ho koaloa ha lifeme libakeng tse ngata, empa tšebeliso ha e mpe haholo ho tsoa ho data.Pele ho tsohle, mabapi le sekhahla sa ts'ebetso ea likhoebo tse sebetsanang le melapo e tlase, e ne e le 66.5% qalong ea Phupu le 65.4% mafelong a Phato, e leng phokotseho ea liperesente tse 1.1.Sekhahla sa ts'ebetso se theohile ka liperesente tse 3.6 ka nako e ts'oanang selemong se fetileng.Ho ea ka pono ea litekanyetso tsa thepa, lithane tse 4,000 feela tsa li-ingots tsa aluminium li ne li bolokiloe ka August eohle, 'me lithane tsa 52,000 li ne li ntse li sa bolokehe ka July-August.Ka August, polokelo e bokelitsoeng ea lithupa tsa aluminium e ne e le lithane tse 2 600, 'me ho tloha ka July ho ea ho August, polokelo e bokelitsoeng ea lithupa tsa aluminium e ne e le lithane tse 11,300.Ka hona, ho tloha ka July ho ea ho August, boemo ba ho senyeha ha thepa bo ile ba bolokoa ka kakaretso, 'me lithane tse 6 600 feela li ile tsa bokelloa ka August, e leng se bontšang hore tšebeliso ea hona joale e ntse e e-na le botsitso bo matla.Ho tloha sebakeng sa pono, katleho ea likoloi tse ncha tsa matla le phepelo ea matla a moea le ea letsatsi e bolokiloe, 'me ho hula ha aluminium ho tla ba teng selemo ho pota.Kakaretso ea ho theoha ha thepa ea matlo ha e so fetohe.Ho kokobela ha boemo ba leholimo ba mocheso o phahameng ho tla thusa sebaka sa kaho hore se qale mosebetsi, ’me ho thakholoa ha letlole la liphallelo la naha la “moaho o tiisitsoeng” oa limilione tse likete tse 200 le hona ho tla thusa ho ntlafatsa sehokelo sa ho phethoa.Ka hona, re lumela hore nako ea tšebeliso ea "Golden Nine Silver Ten" e ntse e ka lebelloa.
Nako ea poso: Sep-09-2022